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Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→P→R
phase: settled
volume: $102.2M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xd6e0317cee513cc3afdc1954ac576b241ad2287536e88b17fd3a77b4c3d0976e

YES lost, 18.6M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 74% (13.8M of 18.6M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 7.6M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 78% (6.0M of 7.6M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $7.6M and redeemed $7.6M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
Pestle 0x241f846866c2de4fb67cdb0ca6b963d85e56ef50	3.4M	3.4M	$3.4M	1.00	$3K
cigarettes 0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9	1.5M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$4K
Nexuus 0xce5bec63b40392845a9a504915f607c8e03a047a	484K	484K	$483K	1.00	$968
Oddinn 0xa53c26443fb636d8ae31ac24f62fc1d5ef8f67a5	338K	338K	$337K	1.00	$676
wokerjoesleeper 0x63d43bbb87f85af03b8f2f9e2fad7b54334fa2f1	278K	278K	$277K	1.00	$966
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	253K	253K	$252K	1.00	$923
Cookedtan 0xb48b9192dc52eed724fa58c66fa8926d06a3648e	215K	215K	$215K	1.00	$784
100x 0xb48ef6deecd526c0974c35e1f7b5c3bbd12fa144	210K	210K	$209K	1.00	$1K
locuspm 0x7b676d5a6379855773d405fcf19b9aa577651b07	200K	200K	$200K	1.00	$386
Ignisss 0xdd572169e741c72227589c5cb56b9ddd638d694d	192K	191K	$191K	1.00	$382
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	166K	166K	$165K	0.99	$2K
ImJustKen 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344	145K	145K	$144K	1.00	$145
rated 0xa3ad70cf48a2f2b44163e798223c01a2c2536866	131K	131K	$131K	1.00	$238
Snpe 0x7ba5354929bf388707f397c8b21b8322dc954252	118K	111K	$111K	1.00	$105
0xa6d4986b5c38cb3ccef5fbaba2896d573c832a42	105K	0	$82	9154.68	$-82
Anjun 0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882	100K	22K	$22K	0.99	$156
ninewmon 0xc8bd756f260673642028bc70c22154d1179d7c5e	98K	0	$98	19603.09	$-98
BenedictClapham 0x5c1bc78113f95c8bd93205528d672b337171b3b9	93K	0	$93	18696.40	$-93
doyoufeelit 0x54bbbee2e818dd66b36ae37a178d135fd1bc35e5	85K	0	$85	71649.48	$-85
SpringJane 0x953c7a63bd0367dce5f175859f2167908ddefc86	70K	0	$70	11688.89	$-70

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market fed-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-october-2025-meeting
recuse winners fed-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-october-2025-meeting --json

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