RECUSE

Wallet trackers show what remains. Recuse rebuilds what settled.

Every market below was contested at least once: someone put up a bond to argue the proposed outcome was wrong. The colour is the round count and nothing else.

contested markets

marketroundswiped top 5 heldvolumelifecycle
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? 52.0M 33% 5/100 $242.2M P→D→P→D→P→D→P→D→P→D
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? 108.3M 86% 5/100 $203.6M P→D→P→D→P→D
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? 7.2M 32% 5/100 $51.8M P→D→P→D→P→D
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? 7.0M 41% 5/100 $31.9M P→D→P→D→P→D
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? 95.9M 39% 5/100 $375.8M P→D→P→D
US forces enter Iran by April 30? 41.4M 45% 5/100 $269.0M P→D→P→D
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? 53.6M 43% 5/100 $177.4M P→D→P→D
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? 28.7M 34% 5/100 $173.7M P→D→P→D
US government shutdown Saturday? 24.5M 60% 5/100 $157.3M P→D→P→D
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? 12.2M 29% 5/100 $131.1M P→D→P→D
Netanyahu out by March 31? 21.3M 60% 5/100 $104.2M P→D→P→D
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? 26.6M 42% 5/100 $98.6M P→D→P→D
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? 14.1M 26% 5/100 $90.9M P→D→P→D
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? 35.1M 70% 5/100 $89.2M P→D→P→D
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? 11.4M 36% 5/100 $80.8M P→D→P→D
US forces enter Iran by March 31? 10.9M 71% 5/100 $73.9M P→D→P→D
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? 13.4M 58% 5/100 $65.4M P→D→P→D
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? 4.8M 32% 5/100 $63.2M P→D→P→D
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? 5.9M 50% 5/100 $56.5M P→D→P→D
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? 5.2M 27% 5/100 $55.1M P→D→P→D
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? 7.2M 40% 5/100 $51.1M P→D→P→D
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? 8.4M 44% 5/100 $49.0M P→D→P→D
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? 13.2M 42% 5/100 $48.7M P→D→P→D
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? 8.2M 69% 5/100 $40.2M P→D→P→D
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? 3.8M 35% 5/100 $34.9M P→D→P→D
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? 7.2M 32% 5/100 $31.1M P→D→P→D
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? 9.2M 61% 5/100 $30.2M P→D→P→D
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? 8.4M 26% 5/100 $28.8M P→D→P→D
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? 4.8M 57% 5/100 $28.6M P→D→P→D
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? 18.6M 74% 5/100 $102.2M P→D→P→D→P→R
Xi Jinping out in 2025? 15.5M 67% 5/100 $78.7M P→D→P→D→P
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? 22.7M 91% 5/100 $59.9M P→D→P→D→P→R
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? 2.1M 31% 5/100 $36.6M P→D→P→D→R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? 71.6M 66% 5/100 $141.3M P→D
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? 31.6M 84% 5/100 $76.9M P→D→P→R
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? 15.7M 40% 5/100 $76.0M P→D→P→R
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? 17.4M 71% 5/100 $66.0M P→D→P→R
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? 10.3M 28% 5/100 $65.3M P→D→P→R

38 contested of 600 markets examined, showing 38. 562 were never contested and are not listed.

what balances erase

When a market settles, winners redeem their tokens for a dollar each and their balances go to zero. Losers keep theirs, because there is nothing to redeem them for. So the holder list of a settled market is almost entirely the people who lost, and a balance-only view is blind to the side that won.

On the Zelenskyy market the winning side reads as 907 tokens in current balances and 71,435,381 in cumulative buys. The largest winner does not appear in the holder list at all.

These pages rebuild that side from trades.

in a terminal

npm i -g recuse

recuse                        contested markets, most contested first
recuse queue                  resolutions that have not finished
recuse market <slug>          one market, both sides of it
recuse winners <slug>         who bought the side that won