RECUSE

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $98.6M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x9823d715687a0a82d2a03731792e83bf58a0409f10def1379e00e4d67a95ba69

NO lost, 26.6M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 42% (11.1M of 26.6M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 51.8M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 66% (34.3M of 51.8M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $51.7M and redeemed $51.8M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	9.8M	9.8M	$9.8M	1.00	$10K
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	8.9M	8.9M	$8.9M	1.00	$9K
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	7.2M	7.1M	$7.1M	1.00	$7K
CAR-AyatollahVersion 0x511653479dbf3a4557d8a2359595d429b90dc5b8	4.5M	4.5M	$4.5M	1.00	$5K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$4K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	2.9M	2.9M	$2.9M	1.00	$3K
Deeyeo 0x78c2894cca670265cf7e0d8682c9f2f8e8d18f4b	2.4M	2.4M	$2.4M	1.00	$2K
admiss 0x0f66c5891da180d4620a1838d408e9774b16a9d0	2.0M	2.0M	$2.0M	1.00	$2K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	1.8M	1.8M	$1.8M	1.00	$2K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.7M	1.7M	$1.7M	1.00	$2K
LmaoIloveyou 0x9360b2f34cd705a36393fd96fda05ccaabf3f1c8	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
0x0162aea3c64C63a0292d1f8ac8f8D108bdD00… 0x08736da5e4e646e21fb0151a7116066ebef0326f	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$1K
MoronKiler 0xbebe49168cc3fe33fd9060c6fc83355c3359a8b5	945K	945K	$944K	1.00	$945
Car 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b	690K	398K	$396K	1.00	$2K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	603K	603K	$602K	1.00	$603
scout 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3	581K	581K	$580K	1.00	$1K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	581K	504K	$503K	1.00	$878
BrightStars 0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5	518K	457K	$449K	0.98	$8K
tourists 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f	512K	250K	$246K	0.98	$4K
xyxyxyxyxyx 0x86418596425efd3bee355722e5fdad8154ca94ce	502K	502K	$501K	1.00	$502

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $50
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by-april-18-2026
recuse winners israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by-april-18-2026 --json

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