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Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $34.9M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846

YES lost, 3.8M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 35% (1.4M of 3.8M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 11.0M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 62% (6.8M of 11.0M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $10.9M and redeemed $11.0M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
Just2ofUs 0x70bbae8501e8f346168c06c32e9f7d42afc1b180	2.4M	2.4M	$2.4M	1.00	$7K
locuspm 0x7b676d5a6379855773d405fcf19b9aa577651b07	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$1K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	0.99	$7K
scout 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$5K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	663K	434K	$433K	1.00	$1K
0943 0x5bffcf561bcae83af680ad600cb99f1184d6ffbe	537K	537K	$536K	1.00	$537
Flipadelphia 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	512K	512K	$510K	1.00	$2K
Liquidifier 0x48185887c8dc95de60ee89722f1d0ee7894cbf0b	476K	363K	$338K	0.93	$25K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	450K	450K	$448K	1.00	$2K
scoobydoolover 0x08ce2678c929934de9edea698a998aea9dbc295e	427K	315K	$307K	0.98	$8K
rwo 0xd189664c5308903476f9f079820431e4fd7d06f4	414K	129K	$128K	1.00	$333
Schizoaffective.On.Acid 0x847b8fdacd157191d47c7ccb2aad5c67bbd21027	413K	441	$27	0.06	$415
chungguskhan 0x7744bfd749a70020d16a1fcbac1d064761c9999e	396K	396K	$392K	0.99	$4K
tsekinming01 0x69aa9fa621403e3a121b29ad77d32ba9eb5e8847	381K	374K	$372K	1.00	$2K
big.bitch 0x4851a13a61c99688c68191e8e8a8755ea5b81e94	361K	299K	$300K	1.00	$-898
JAHODA 0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593	330K	22	$-859	-38.47	$881
hollyber 0x1604b15af9eab550175b268dd574a155c5ebff0e	295K	265K	$264K	1.00	$524
tsybka 0xd5ccdf772f795547e299de57f47966e24de8dea4	275K	200K	$199K	1.00	$500
Dripx 0x82a7183f93447d7a8ff5b4bd08eb0d74de266ed8	255K	255K	$254K	0.99	$2K
LlamaEnjoyer 0x9b979a065641e8cfde3022a30ed2d9415cf55e12	244K	177K	$176K	1.00	$764

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $50
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market monad-market-cap-fdv-4b-one-day-after-launch-532
recuse winners monad-market-cap-fdv-4b-one-day-after-launch-532 --json

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