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US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

disputes: 3 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $203.6M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x1d2787cb8aed975d092b2799ed6f4083e9445f7420cdc09e9d47e7d54356c6cd

YES lost, 108.3M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 86% (92.8M of 108.3M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 99.3M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 48% (47.4M of 99.3M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $99.1M and redeemed $99.3M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
bobe2.1 0x5bb0de4e97698184ead80c80cb17a26cd6f6814b	15.6M	15.6M	$15.5M	1.00	$41K
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	10.3M	8.4M	$8.4M	1.00	$23K
ForesightOracle 0x7072dd52161bae614bec6905846a53c9a3a53413	8.8M	8.8M	$8.8M	1.00	$10K
CongMingLabs 0xa8b202e6e9a4c2091b6860f1f5c9e9119bbc9a39	7.4M	7.4M	$7.4M	1.00	$18K
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	7.2M	7.2M	$7.1M	1.00	$10K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	6.6M	6.6M	$6.6M	1.00	$20K
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	5.7M	5.7M	$5.7M	1.00	$14K
mustr 0x8788ae76e7516db143461b211d748578ad9cc2e5	4.5M	4.5M	$4.5M	1.00	$9K
JP.Max 0xf15a73a1c9cfa07dc9dd33586f95afb3b361c445	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$8K
0xa2cd4ccda9a1f95949df7a3355c4c2daa0642ba0	4.0M	4.0M	$3.9M	1.00	$6K
FedWillWin 0xfdc07e182e6f959256295567e450a8727272fa79	3.3M	3.3M	$3.3M	1.00	$11K
LordofPM 0xad7f7e2f4418fe358606164eccc0d0126aa467dc	3.2M	3.2M	$3.2M	1.00	$10K
notsosure6 0x6328c267812df80775801c0a98056609ee0036a4	3.1M	3.1M	$3.1M	1.00	$10K
BecauseNo 0xa012e12645cbba5d03320b1d5ec20c5ef0a26e3e	3.0M	3.0M	$3.0M	1.00	$3K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	2.9M	2.9M	$2.9M	1.00	$3K
METROPOLI 0xf1229f95edb566fa771f442469d18178106f6ea7	2.5M	2.5M	$2.5M	1.00	$8K
mangotree 0x58d8248b1d54ce937733eb4b64fd6a2932d07a4c	2.5M	2.5M	$2.5M	1.00	$8K
ndb1 0xfea31bc088000ff909be1dfd8d0e3f2c7ef2d227	2.3M	2.3M	$2.3M	1.00	$5K
Deeyeo 0x78c2894cca670265cf7e0d8682c9f2f8e8d18f4b	2.3M	2.3M	$2.3M	1.00	$3K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	2.1M	2.1M	$2.1M	1.00	$3K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market us-x-iran-ceasefire-extended-by-april-22-2026
recuse winners us-x-iran-ceasefire-extended-by-april-22-2026 --json

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