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Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→P→R
phase: settled
volume: $59.9M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x61b66d02793b4a68ab0cc25be60d65f517fe18c7d654041281bb130341244fcc

NO lost, 22.7M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 91% (20.8M of 22.7M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 11.9M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 68% (8.1M of 11.9M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $11.7M and redeemed $11.9M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	4.3M	4.3M	$4.3M	1.00	$11K
ClaudeAI 0x89e75fd541c6cb6549f13e98c78b971c8f3e50e9	1.5M	826K	$790K	0.96	$37K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
third-eye 0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652	1.1M	1.1M	$1.0M	0.95	$51K
foodenjoyer 0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991	733K	174K	$162K	0.93	$12K
Tigerofthehood 0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc	650K	334K	$335K	1.00	$-1K
SlavaUkraini 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899	580K	580K	$579K	1.00	$580
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	507K	507K	$491K	0.97	$16K
Arbguy 0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177	497K	463K	$465K	1.00	$-1K
FedMoneyPrinter 0x57ae6ad85aa10e5f66a2997983fa7b91b634e386	487K	339K	$325K	0.96	$14K
ScottyNooo 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	439K	329K	$297K	0.90	$32K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	371K	252K	$241K	0.95	$11K
m00n 0x3f02a8b650d4b30449e83616f2165460209ca51c	349K	90K	$86K	0.96	$4K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	345K	21K	$26K	1.24	$-5K
DonaldinhoTrumpito 0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c	315K	315K	$311K	0.99	$4K
luciousleft 0x1986a3e555dd2a334c33c34b0168170cff54ef06	309K	309K	$304K	0.98	$5K
11122 0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122	308K	276K	$254K	0.92	$22K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	304K	50K	$48K	0.97	$1K
Thanksgiving-Turkey 0x95ad9a53fe7fe299f96c265184896cf36ac2254e	300K	300K	$299K	1.00	$600
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	300K	2K	$6K	2.84	$-4K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-trump-nominate-kevin-warsh-as-the-next-fed-chair
recuse winners will-trump-nominate-kevin-warsh-as-the-next-fed-chair --json

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