RECUSE

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US forces enter Iran by March 31?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $73.9M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56

YES lost, 10.9M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 71% (7.8M of 10.9M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 16.2M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 60% (9.7M of 16.2M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $15.9M and redeemed $16.2M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
CAR-AyatollahVersion 0x511653479dbf3a4557d8a2359595d429b90dc5b8	3.8M	3.8M	$3.8M	1.00	$4K
METROPOLI 0xf1229f95edb566fa771f442469d18178106f6ea7	2.4M	2.4M	$2.4M	1.00	$2K
uLppv3ec6CF.7bLkbRy-aNWzJ3JJDURF4Jbi3Eph 0x92f09ce3d30ac7d64b4e728438d0cfec0892b1ea	1.9M	791K	$789K	1.00	$2K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
4bsnDQ7uBXaAViFJ-3seg6qRjugJ2anH2xmF 0x0489b5c2a15eb47bc5cd1e8970bae4819a62722b	1.1M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$1K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$2K
tongyiju 0x7d432573460a076b35deb3e1eb15c09fde236d78	1.1M	341K	$339K	0.99	$2K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	989K	989K	$987K	1.00	$2K
anoin123 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825	925K	842K	$639K	0.76	$204K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	885K	173K	$171K	0.99	$2K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	660K	646K	$645K	1.00	$856
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	557K	557K	$554K	0.99	$3K
Tigerofthehood 0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc	459K	342K	$339K	0.99	$3K
Dripx 0x82a7183f93447d7a8ff5b4bd08eb0d74de266ed8	445K	445K	$444K	1.00	$890
RYc9m49W8JC7jKeNk6i86FJDwB8m.U 0xc12f9b314ebe410ac3ba67b44d7de03d18fcd25b	443K	425K	$424K	1.00	$443
no1yet 0x4d49acb0ae1c463eb5b1947d174141b812ba7450	378K	378K	$377K	1.00	$2K
MisTKy 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b	361K	36K	$25K	0.69	$11K
kingofthe5 0x129a74a461309a9e4ebba1fa1403668c45cf9fb6	325K	141K	$112K	0.80	$29K
wan123 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	296K	46K	$27K	0.59	$19K
MarkrovichBlack 0x97f937e0ec5068121db4a4b900140544b09f4e4f	296K	296K	$295K	1.00	$296

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market us-forces-enter-iran-by-march-31-222-191-243-517-878-439-519
recuse winners us-forces-enter-iran-by-march-31-222-191-243-517-878-439-519 --json

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