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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

disputes: 1 round
lifecycle: P→D→P→R
phase: settled
volume: $66.0M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xd72622d154dfe65b9c019d6afcfe75a55717e5c502db611f555b101aafbf6ec5

YES lost, 17.4M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 71% (12.3M of 17.4M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 10.3M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 94% (9.7M of 10.3M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $10.3M and redeemed $10.3M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
Pestle 0x241f846866c2de4fb67cdb0ca6b963d85e56ef50	3.5M	3.5M	$3.5M	1.00	$6K
BigFishSushiChief 0x9b9ff79cdc3c6dc3abbc494b06ea577567bea26a	3.4M	3.4M	$3.4M	1.00	$8K
Oddinn 0xa53c26443fb636d8ae31ac24f62fc1d5ef8f67a5	2.0M	2.0M	$2.0M	1.00	$2K
influenz.eth 0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86	679K	679K	$674K	0.99	$5K
foodenjoyer 0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991	138K	138K	$137K	1.00	$580
bengorgorwong3 0xfdacf6c57974cc7b56157d05593b886534e2e4cb	102K	102K	$102K	0.99	$820
o3027 0x6bcd48f75827ddb6f965f7d96727e10adc3406b9	97K	97K	$96K	0.99	$541
Username000 0x674150b47abe7e79835db0e87cd9938961133756	51K	51K	$51K	1.00	$51
rated 0xa3ad70cf48a2f2b44163e798223c01a2c2536866	49K	49K	$48K	0.99	$512
chenyu9 0x3e13499d9b2d0d7d99f1c056073b6ba1c7c758c0	49K	49K	$48K	1.00	$195
LightningSrikeTT 0x87f1b7cd190f6d3ab1125ec72370f9153513de09	47K	0	$47	6917.55	$-47
MoronKiler 0xbebe49168cc3fe33fd9060c6fc83355c3359a8b5	41K	41K	$41K	1.00	$124
username110 0x4af7302a5401e2ec1275a8d54716774b37809ea6	40K	40K	$40K	1.00	$40
K49032 0xd88105ead9ee3527199ea41cb24f94704a6b5abf	39K	39K	$38K	0.99	$507
JosephTrump 0x97afda90095deb8cbc9eac46acc2a79ab2569bc6	37K	17K	$16K	0.95	$811
wokerjoesleeper 0x63d43bbb87f85af03b8f2f9e2fad7b54334fa2f1	37K	37K	$37K	0.99	$410
R03HU 0x47ae472386340dc4c3fbcda40f0efe8c7a854aa2	35K	35K	$35K	1.00	$177
expectless 0x78c66755790cce49927ed6269b70ef4354654710	33K	33K	$32K	0.97	$1K
Siziriv 0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4	30K	30K	$30K	0.99	$186
39192 0x4ce822c0e3ac55b36c78d817aa4cfe39ea8092b4	30K	10	$40	4.00	$-30

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-april-2026-meeting
recuse winners will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-april-2026-meeting --json

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