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Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $89.2M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x86f5b0f1934bb39421651ad2ba0f04494700ba9e95663a5c141a8674c4978c15

NO lost, 35.1M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 70% (24.6M of 35.1M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 43.6M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 58% (25.1M of 43.6M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $43.6M and redeemed $43.6M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	6.5M	6.5M	$6.5M	1.00	$6K
0xa8dee9568b1d11c813aee84c0847956ef52ed11e	6.1M	6.1M	$6.1M	1.00	$6K
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	5.5M	5.5M	$5.5M	1.00	$5K
Worlf 0xad6524acf884fb3c8f76d6c9908a75d7c09d970b	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$4K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	3.0M	3.0M	$3.0M	1.00	$5K
ForesightOracle 0x7072dd52161bae614bec6905846a53c9a3a53413	3.0M	3.0M	$3.0M	1.00	$3K
Esptein 0xfd7c64f694ceeaaf7dbdc6337c80b457f028dc40	3.0M	3.0M	$3.0M	1.00	$3K
RonaldoCry 0xe29bdcbf3bc35326f439008b35e77db15dc3ff35	2.0M	2.0M	$2.0M	1.00	$2K
XAU.XAG 0xe76a223fb20b7d0044bb199a8fe884f655c67ca1	1.5M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$1K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$1K
thegreengem 0xdcd669c506a938bae9269a84b8bd2bdb220484cd	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$1K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$1K
0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c	818K	818K	$816K	1.00	$2K
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b	800K	800K	$799K	1.00	$800
JAHODA 0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593	799K	799K	$798K	1.00	$799
f4fCdFc8355bfEa5D25-1783479027538 0x429332d3f1620f7e17d11f4fcdfc8355bfea5d25	790K	790K	$789K	1.00	$976
doQysuW7L9-U6xMX8Qgv 0x88edd092d799556111e57ff3b2107e24dd406cfb	771K	771K	$770K	1.00	$771
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	659K	655K	$651K	0.99	$4K
Car 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b	530K	500K	$508K	1.01	$-7K
Harluc 0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1	528K	496K	$495K	1.00	$933

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-ronaldo-cry-at-the-world-cup-20260604013616610
recuse winners will-ronaldo-cry-at-the-world-cup-20260604013616610 --json

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