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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $177.4M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423

NO lost, 53.6M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 43% (23.1M of 53.6M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 56.6M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 59% (33.3M of 56.6M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $54.5M and redeemed $56.6M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
TT.TT.TT 0x9501ec3b8b3e330ae593ebe5b071c3d11b648223	13.5M	13.5M	$13.5M	1.00	$27K
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	7.0M	7.0M	$7.0M	1.00	$16K
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	4.9M	4.9M	$4.9M	1.00	$10K
BecauseNo 0xa012e12645cbba5d03320b1d5ec20c5ef0a26e3e	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$8K
FengfengHUop 0x4c358f830cea4ee26a301ed0faef418bc149fcfe	3.9M	3.9M	$3.9M	1.00	$8K
0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563	3.9M	3.4M	$3.2M	0.95	$178K
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	3.8M	3.7M	$3.5M	0.95	$191K
PowellTheKing 0x4099db7f2d394449ccf89c8d42260ecaf1d79fb8	3.7M	3.7M	$3.7M	1.00	$10K
secretscent 0xf1539247af59b16517377a859bcd0d9c7eac162c	2.4M	2.4M	$2.4M	1.00	$2K
aenews2 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1	2.1M	624K	$272K	0.43	$353K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	2.0M	2.0M	$2.0M	1.00	$7K
coali10 0x7bc14171ccb0d3e6bac219ec6a76211826e28db4	1.4M	628K	$222K	0.35	$407K
boobaz 0xde294a409a8870b3029b935e451a696e13ef89b1	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$1K
wan123 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	1.2M	1.2M	$317K	0.27	$853K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	1.0M	308K	$302K	0.98	$6K
Shirtybonds 0x672f13d830d3617efea21c2ec7f4bda5d2c27fcc	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$2K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	888K	888K	$870K	0.98	$18K
0x6fec0fd0e5562f0ca9a709417d4492aadac43be3	882K	882K	$878K	1.00	$3K
0x665dcbe83796b5010279f0a38b197d65e0aaaf35	871K	871K	$869K	1.00	$2K
hahhaaa 0xa1ba817858d1997150294f135e90db71318d4304	840K	484K	$476K	0.98	$8K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $5000
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129
recuse winners us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129 --json

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