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US government shutdown Saturday?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $157.3M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5

NO lost, 24.5M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 60% (14.8M of 24.5M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 36.3M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 56% (20.4M of 36.3M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $36.1M and redeemed $36.3M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	5.5M	5.4M	$5.3M	1.00	$17K
ForesightOracle 0x7072dd52161bae614bec6905846a53c9a3a53413	4.7M	4.7M	$4.7M	1.00	$11K
FedMoneyPrinter 0x57ae6ad85aa10e5f66a2997983fa7b91b634e386	4.1M	4.1M	$4.0M	1.00	$8K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	3.5M	3.5M	$3.5M	1.00	$14K
admiss 0x0f66c5891da180d4620a1838d408e9774b16a9d0	2.8M	2.8M	$2.8M	1.00	$5K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	2.6M	683K	$668K	0.98	$14K
alliswell 0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e	2.5M	139K	$115K	0.83	$24K
Malfunction. 0xfc25f141ed27bb1787338d2c4e7f51e3a15e1f7f	2.3M	362K	$359K	0.99	$3K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	2.1M	2.1M	$2.1M	1.00	$5K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	1.9M	1.7M	$1.7M	1.00	$5K
Official-Market-Maker 0x94cff0a688ca7b2e5b2602343c49bcd812123db3	1.9M	1.8M	$1.8M	1.00	$3K
ClaudeAI 0x89e75fd541c6cb6549f13e98c78b971c8f3e50e9	1.6M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$660
scout 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$4K
Contrarian - 7451 0x095dcfb123a4bc035ee6b0d624bab0cc964352cf	1.1M	670K	$668K	1.00	$2K
thegreengem 0xdcd669c506a938bae9269a84b8bd2bdb220484cd	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$3K
gmanas 0xe90bec87d9ef430f27f9dcfe72c34b76967d5da2	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$3K
SwissMiss 0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95	1.0M	1.0M	$964K	0.96	$43K
MarcoGPT 0x3e2391418438e76a76b6699474abf803cceb9b18	988K	988K	$986K	1.00	$2K
Meso- 0xeeb8c48abc6185c22db94d8706b2ab8748cfcab5	933K	933K	$931K	1.00	$2K
FedWillWin 0xfdc07e182e6f959256295567e450a8727272fa79	904K	904K	$898K	0.99	$6K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $5000
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31
recuse winners will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31 --json

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