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Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

disputes: 3 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $51.8M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x3b2f19935f2a969634a7aca52b69cf653d957ec6243bdfcb97dd830003e90624

NO lost, 7.2M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 32% (2.3M of 7.2M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 13.4M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 61% (8.1M of 13.4M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $13.2M and redeemed $13.4M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
Spice-511 0xbcb6ebb4368dd51722d68d25c740cde2ef5fc7c9	2.8M	2.8M	$2.7M	1.00	$7K
0943 0x5bffcf561bcae83af680ad600cb99f1184d6ffbe	2.4M	1.8M	$1.8M	1.00	$9K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	2.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	0.99	$9K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	1.7M	1.6M	$1.6M	0.99	$8K
BowlOfPunch 0x889e7f0464c72eb8cda1525ebc12b6aaba9d09e0	1.6M	120K	$115K	0.96	$5K
mangotree 0x58d8248b1d54ce937733eb4b64fd6a2932d07a4c	1.2M	173	$299	1.72	$-125
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	988K	988K	$982K	0.99	$6K
AreWeNotEntertained 0xf7850ebb60c10d5375fff6e596d55b69fdec05ed	861K	861K	$857K	1.00	$4K
tsybka 0xd5ccdf772f795547e299de57f47966e24de8dea4	846K	372K	$370K	1.00	$2K
ScarletRot 0xf743f416caa37f672e8434a9132f681a8fa0ac84	818K	208K	$203K	0.98	$5K
tsekinming01 0x69aa9fa621403e3a121b29ad77d32ba9eb5e8847	692K	117K	$115K	0.99	$1K
aenews2 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1	685K	512K	$495K	0.97	$17K
Car 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b	683K	41K	$32K	0.79	$8K
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	667K	667K	$658K	0.99	$9K
0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f0… 0xe639e41094bbeae18f3e6d1790c17299183f082a	660K	660K	$657K	0.99	$4K
BuckMySalls 0x509587cbb541251c74f261df3421f1fcc9fdc97c	629K	321K	$318K	0.99	$3K
Funfzig 0x5e9c76f30788f31f6c6867f5f44b1e95a7a7cd75	600K	581K	$561K	0.97	$20K
Liquidifier 0x48185887c8dc95de60ee89722f1d0ee7894cbf0b	568K	273K	$270K	0.99	$3K
Treadmilled 0xf4baccff188321440a1ed01a5d5fd89c3e1f5933	554K	2	$-3K	-1650.61	$3K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	480K	480K	$479K	1.00	$985

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $50
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july
recuse winners israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july --json

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