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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $49.0M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7

NO lost, 8.4M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 44% (3.7M of 8.4M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 9.2M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 67% (6.2M of 9.2M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $7.9M and redeemed $9.2M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
bobe2.1 0x5bb0de4e97698184ead80c80cb17a26cd6f6814b	2.0M	2.0M	$2.0M	1.00	$2K
FengfengHUop 0x4c358f830cea4ee26a301ed0faef418bc149fcfe	1.8M	1.8M	$1.8M	1.00	$4K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	991K	991K	$985K	0.99	$6K
Erasmus. 0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784	955K	689K	$300K	0.44	$389K
classified 0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8	751K	148K	$84K	0.57	$64K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	709K	618K	$590K	0.95	$29K
PowellTheKing 0x4099db7f2d394449ccf89c8d42260ecaf1d79fb8	704K	704K	$702K	1.00	$1K
MisTKy 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b	668K	36K	$13K	0.37	$22K
Clicker1 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e	424K	424K	$186K	0.44	$238K
Harluc 0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1	399K	304K	$198K	0.65	$106K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	366K	360K	$360K	1.00	$722
yungstalin 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8	343K	111K	$14K	0.12	$98K
x2x1xyx 0xb62a06f5675d41b19a0d19972dce87ce576f7c3e	323K	323K	$322K	1.00	$646
anoin123 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825	300K	300K	$147K	0.49	$153K
JJo 0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675	296K	185K	$181K	0.98	$4K
mombil 0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711	265K	2K	$-10K	-4.64	$12K
1610desktop 0xc13cbd011bc02c0c9fd9a5d4dbd236ecc0e8a202	259K	1K	$-41K	-40.29	$42K
0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96… 0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92	254K	8K	$468	0.06	$8K
Dragontree 0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc	254K	11K	$-21K	-2.00	$32K
BrightStars 0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5	250K	186K	$34K	0.18	$152K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892-537-597
recuse winners us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892-537-597 --json

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