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Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

disputes: 3 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $31.9M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xd7540d64e03b1894ececcbb54c02b88d9c5c0e854ba66ec4e1ece20477994ac5

NO lost, 7.0M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 41% (2.9M of 7.0M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 14.8M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 61% (9.0M of 14.8M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $14.8M and redeemed $14.8M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	3.1M	3.1M	$3.1M	1.00	$5K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	2.7M	2.6M	$2.6M	1.00	$8K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$3K
LmaoIloveyou 0x9360b2f34cd705a36393fd96fda05ccaabf3f1c8	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	0.99	$6K
thegreengem 0xdcd669c506a938bae9269a84b8bd2bdb220484cd	1.1M	450K	$447K	1.00	$2K
0x6fec0fd0e5562f0ca9a709417d4492aadac43be3	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$1K
0x07696dfa08e850a6514f2c624b19df2d55b63113	857K	857K	$855K	1.00	$2K
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	837K	837K	$829K	0.99	$8K
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	822K	822K	$821K	1.00	$2K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	607K	5K	$3K	0.62	$2K
MoronKiler 0xbebe49168cc3fe33fd9060c6fc83355c3359a8b5	599K	599K	$595K	0.99	$3K
0x665dcbe83796b5010279f0a38b197d65e0aaaf35	410K	410K	$410K	1.00	$410
hebi007 0x99b2bebd993cbf0c30fff139e9f4e2a655db8eb6	403K	403K	$402K	1.00	$1K
scout 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3	319K	230K	$231K	1.00	$-739
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	306K	306K	$306K	1.00	$306
JamesBonder007 0x4d1466c694b26a71e426bd3295ebbb07727b2366	226K	226K	$225K	0.99	$1K
FlyingPlaty 0x1295269296e51cd28a3db85fa6728c0e352b5cfd	191K	191K	$190K	0.99	$1K
Sharky6999 0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1	180K	180K	$180K	1.00	$180
GingFring 0x5a3033f65bf178eb7d85bdd7bf40ca3230f8debd	163K	163K	$163K	1.00	$163
ScottyNooo 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	163K	163K	$158K	0.97	$5K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $50
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-24-733
recuse winners will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-24-733 --json

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