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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $173.7M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7

NO lost, 28.7M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 34% (9.8M of 28.7M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 54.9M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 56% (30.6M of 54.9M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $54.8M and redeemed $54.9M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	10.6M	8.7M	$8.7M	1.00	$13K
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	7.1M	7.1M	$7.1M	1.00	$23K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	6.5M	6.5M	$6.5M	1.00	$14K
ForesightOracle 0x7072dd52161bae614bec6905846a53c9a3a53413	4.3M	4.3M	$4.3M	1.00	$6K
FedWillWin 0xfdc07e182e6f959256295567e450a8727272fa79	4.1M	4.1M	$4.1M	1.00	$4K
CAR-AyatollahVersion 0x511653479dbf3a4557d8a2359595d429b90dc5b8	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$5K
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	3.1M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$6K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	2.9M	2.9M	$2.9M	1.00	$8K
CongMingLabs 0xa8b202e6e9a4c2091b6860f1f5c9e9119bbc9a39	2.6M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$6K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.8M	1.8M	$1.8M	1.00	$8K
0x35eda0e894b48ddd0406c74077738a46b5d08252	1.5M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$2K
0x7e6b15577d367a9f885f782b1c6c46556a95e3c5	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	0.99	$9K
LmaoIloveyou 0x9360b2f34cd705a36393fd96fda05ccaabf3f1c8	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
RYc9m49W8JC7jKeNk6i86FJDwB8m.U 0xc12f9b314ebe410ac3ba67b44d7de03d18fcd25b	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	1.3M	1.2M	$1.2M	0.99	$18K
VforVictorious 0xafbae43b98afc7f8b2c85d5294d2979dcac0e81a	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$3K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$3K
uLppv3ec6CF.7bLkbRy-aNWzJ3JJDURF4Jbi3Eph 0x92f09ce3d30ac7d64b4e728438d0cfec0892b1ea	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$1K
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	0.99	$7K
0x0162aea3c64C63a0292d1f8ac8f8D108bdD00… 0x08736da5e4e646e21fb0151a7116066ebef0326f	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$1K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-7
recuse winners us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-7 --json

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