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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

disputes: 1 round
lifecycle: P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $141.3M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35

NO lost, 71.6M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 66% (47.4M of 71.6M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 96.6M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 73% (70.7M of 96.6M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $96.4M and redeemed $96.6M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	37.3M	37.3M	$37.2M	1.00	$37K
FedWillWin 0xfdc07e182e6f959256295567e450a8727272fa79	11.3M	11.3M	$11.3M	1.00	$13K
LlamaEnjoyer 0x9b979a065641e8cfde3022a30ed2d9415cf55e12	8.4M	8.4M	$8.4M	1.00	$8K
0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd 0x0a543bb97015206f67e1bc5ead7c2d60baf64a03	7.2M	7.2M	$7.2M	1.00	$7K
tourists 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f	6.6M	6.6M	$6.6M	1.00	$17K
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	3.5M	3.5M	$3.5M	1.00	$3K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	2.8M	2.8M	$2.8M	1.00	$7K
tf2 0xa102b434ce441a3119e146f75ed6276ee1a836d9	2.7M	2.7M	$2.7M	1.00	$3K
0x7131cb618fb195c70e8e629c45199096833c29cc	2.6M	2.6M	$2.6M	1.00	$3K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	2.5M	2.5M	$2.5M	1.00	$3K
CAR-GangVersion 0x02e7f29f3e612a95a9ccca7131ce7dd5d56b59e5	2.3M	2.3M	$2.3M	1.00	$2K
LmaoIloveyou 0x9360b2f34cd705a36393fd96fda05ccaabf3f1c8	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
duderr 0x8f7a4b414417911e7e9bd738399874792cdbdb40	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$6K
MoronKiler 0xbebe49168cc3fe33fd9060c6fc83355c3359a8b5	1.1M	1.1M	$1.1M	1.00	$1K
0x6fec0fd0e5562f0ca9a709417d4492aadac43be3	1.0M	1.0M	$1.0M	1.00	$1K
hebi007 0x99b2bebd993cbf0c30fff139e9f4e2a655db8eb6	1.0M	1.0M	$999K	1.00	$1K
0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1	1.0M	1.0M	$999K	1.00	$1K
norrisfan 0xe72bb501df5306c75c89383d48a1e81073fbb0a0	965K	965K	$964K	1.00	$965
flying-wheel 0x314896ba4dc34663fc8c283726ca6638ba1ebc30	955K	720K	$719K	1.00	$1K
0x665dcbe83796b5010279f0a38b197d65e0aaaf35	906K	906K	$905K	1.00	$906

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $50
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026
recuse winners russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026 --json

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