RECUSE

← all contested markets

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $131.1M
bond: $500
condition id: 0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8

NO lost, 12.2M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 29% (3.5M of 12.2M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 32.1M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 65% (20.9M of 32.1M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $30.9M and redeemed $32.1M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	5.0M	5.0M	$5.0M	1.00	$10K
qmarktea2 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5	4.5M	4.4M	$4.4M	1.00	$19K
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	4.3M	3.2M	$3.2M	0.98	$62K
ForesightOracle 0x7072dd52161bae614bec6905846a53c9a3a53413	4.2M	4.2M	$4.2M	1.00	$9K
mangotree 0x58d8248b1d54ce937733eb4b64fd6a2932d07a4c	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$8K
lfg321 0x7e97bd09c2ccc632fb728d91b7c37d8ec5f34d54	2.2M	2.2M	$2.2M	1.00	$3K
Incrediblez7-Defi 0xf54dae096aaf3d18c417ecfb454512191902b546	1.6M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$2K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	1.6M	1.6M	$1.6M	1.00	$2K
0943 0x5bffcf561bcae83af680ad600cb99f1184d6ffbe	1.5M	1.5M	$1.5M	1.00	$2K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	0.99	$11K
wan123 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	1.0M	25K	$-186K	-7.38	$211K
ScottyNooo 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	943K	943K	$853K	0.91	$89K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	926K	763K	$623K	0.82	$140K
Erasmus. 0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784	713K	116K	$-12K	-0.10	$128K
denizz 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73	587K	177K	$-114K	-0.65	$291K
SheltonDoubter 0x7cf93583951552553bc0d243a8582a3410ed2798	582K	193K	$175K	0.91	$18K
METROPOLI 0xf1229f95edb566fa771f442469d18178106f6ea7	547K	547K	$545K	1.00	$1K
Car 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b	517K	323K	$233K	0.72	$91K
aenews2 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1	494K	2K	$-117K	-49.43	$120K
Lily.Phillips 0x32658d61f095d603fa7f8ea57799d392131334c3	467K	83K	$81K	0.98	$2K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28
recuse winners khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28 --json

This market on Polymarket