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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $63.2M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2

NO lost, 4.8M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 32% (1.5M of 4.8M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 5.8M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 50% (2.9M of 5.8M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $4.4M and redeemed $5.8M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
foodenjoyer 0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991	1.5M	262K	$48K	0.18	$215K
Curseaaaaaaaa 0xbad457dc633bbb7b6cbe09dd5867a5e8e597acd7	989K	724K	$37K	0.05	$686K
Incrediblez7-Defi 0xf54dae096aaf3d18c417ecfb454512191902b546	973K	374K	$364K	0.97	$9K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	967K	967K	$965K	1.00	$2K
alliswell 0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e	587K	34K	$-38K	-1.13	$72K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	497K	497K	$495K	1.00	$2K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	443K	295K	$196K	0.67	$99K
rdba 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8	349K	349K	$340K	0.97	$9K
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b	325K	325K	$320K	0.99	$5K
Anjun 0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882	308K	308K	$212K	0.69	$97K
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate 0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9	298K	298K	$292K	0.98	$6K
okcoolstorybro 0x122cdd9db64fd8dc3ebab813218e3effe21f821f	297K	296K	$290K	0.98	$6K
humanbeans 0x6d7776a0f954be1a7c975a1e8244de6268f7b72c	274K	67K	$32K	0.47	$35K
ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD 0x13414a77a4be48988851c73dfd824d0168e70853	259K	259K	$258K	1.00	$937
thegreengem 0xdcd669c506a938bae9269a84b8bd2bdb220484cd	222K	160K	$159K	0.99	$1K
risk-manager 0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd	216K	29K	$3K	0.10	$27K
TheLastOfMachine 0x766e6a0a9c36e603dd0e8b35bede1b70fa3562ef	211K	211K	$206K	0.98	$5K
Debosnys 0x7e30c3a56d89edac738d788dd218a9e64fb91e50	196K	196K	$196K	1.00	$196
Yakira2025 0x6bcfeac36a7a11b001d99932f7a2831a9852324e	187K	1K	$-59K	-47.47	$60K
BABELCONSTEL 0xfa21179f2cef2f61cb78e8340ae62b17f9271438	173K	144K	$113K	0.78	$31K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31
recuse winners khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31 --json

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