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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D→R
phase: settled
volume: $36.6M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951

YES lost, 2.1M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 31% (672K of 2.1M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 3.4M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 60% (2.1M of 3.4M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $2.9M and redeemed $3.4M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
lava-lava 0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a	678K	678K	$535K	0.79	$144K
cigarettes 0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9	656K	656K	$578K	0.88	$78K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	264K	264K	$236K	0.90	$28K
coali10 0x7bc14171ccb0d3e6bac219ec6a76211826e28db4	254K	233K	$179K	0.77	$54K
donthackme 0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d	246K	246K	$189K	0.77	$57K
Flipadelphia 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	244K	24K	$11K	0.45	$13K
0x4207c4f53b785c6dOd48512a497ebd845c29b… 0x4207c4f53b785c6d0d48512a497ebd845c29b81b	206K	57K	$53K	0.92	$4K
influenz.eth 0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86	198K	198K	$150K	0.76	$48K
mwenya 0xde0463ea7f611b065e8ab06bbfbddad75e6dfa37	183K	183K	$148K	0.81	$35K
almost-never 0x88b59d79b6e1659c95a0043028e5bb7a26e6205c	178K	89K	$66K	0.74	$23K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	177K	32K	$25K	0.78	$7K
GrandeFromage 0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705	173K	103K	$97K	0.94	$7K
pup1 0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31	170K	135K	$112K	0.83	$23K
Tigerofthehood 0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc	145K	11K	$20K	1.71	$-8K
Kickstand7 0xd1acd3925d895de9aec98ff95f3a30c5279d08d5	141K	119K	$108K	0.91	$11K
mango-lassi 0xc9b6227a295985591fe576ff2e054267a78a9b6a	113K	86K	$79K	0.92	$7K
jocpolitic 0xdc03d611e5bcc9f1c87edb95edeb91671471804c	113K	86K	$63K	0.73	$23K
ZhangMuZhi.. 0x84571f1bf97a5c710cbe51daff2dd4556cc887fd	107K	107K	$107K	1.00	$107
poptree 0x57c5de7efafb020e589f80e0da6e16e9b5c907aa	98K	52K	$45K	0.86	$8K
mr.ozi 0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546	96K	85K	$73K	0.86	$12K

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-roberto-snchez-palomino-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election
recuse winners will-roberto-snchez-palomino-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election --json

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