RECUSE

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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

disputes: 1 round
lifecycle: P→D→P→R
phase: settled
volume: $65.3M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x0d14f5dc9fb3250ec888b1ac8d9fe9a0ce06f9d3ea60fdf138e8690622fea84c

YES lost, 10.3M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 28% (2.9M of 10.3M tokens, from balances)

NO won, 9.5M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 90% (8.6M of 9.5M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $9.4M and redeemed $9.5M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
BigFishSushiChief 0x9b9ff79cdc3c6dc3abbc494b06ea577567bea26a	3.4M	3.4M	$3.4M	0.99	$19K
Oddinn 0xa53c26443fb636d8ae31ac24f62fc1d5ef8f67a5	2.6M	2.6M	$2.6M	1.00	$5K
Pestle 0x241f846866c2de4fb67cdb0ca6b963d85e56ef50	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$6K
influenz.eth 0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86	661K	661K	$635K	0.96	$26K
LordofPM 0xad7f7e2f4418fe358606164eccc0d0126aa467dc	650K	650K	$649K	1.00	$903
JAHODA 0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593	344K	326K	$322K	0.99	$4K
ggggdd 0x29773a892e36a0c5b57d6003024de5f9f1398abf	99K	99K	$98K	0.99	$1K
noreasapa 0x4ad6cadefae3c28f5b2caa32a99ebba3a614464c	73K	73K	$73K	1.00	$154
ArmageddonRewardsBilly 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418	72K	12K	$9K	0.76	$3K
eldestboy 0xb414bd8d17c921cdaf49023f653710c2b5324cd5	65K	3K	$3K	0.97	$95
wokerjoesleeper 0x63d43bbb87f85af03b8f2f9e2fad7b54334fa2f1	58K	58K	$55K	0.95	$3K
debased 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	58K	48K	$48K	0.99	$388
Gr33d 0x4b7410aefbf0f38012b0dfb1131a4de147a9e8d7	55K	18K	$17K	0.99	$202
chenyu9 0x3e13499d9b2d0d7d99f1c056073b6ba1c7c758c0	49K	49K	$48K	0.99	$584
rated 0xa3ad70cf48a2f2b44163e798223c01a2c2536866	46K	46K	$43K	0.93	$3K
Siziriv 0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4	43K	43K	$43K	0.99	$633
Sharky6999 0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1	41K	41K	$40K	1.00	$48
K49032 0xd88105ead9ee3527199ea41cb24f94704a6b5abf	37K	37K	$35K	0.94	$2K
R4BUHU 0x7890df50231abe27aaca576e6c8f276ab6b44678	36K	36K	$36K	0.99	$349
R03HU 0x47ae472386340dc4c3fbcda40f0efe8c7a854aa2	35K	35K	$35K	0.99	$425

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log and omits trades under $500
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-april-2026-meeting
recuse winners will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-april-2026-meeting --json

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