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Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?

disputes: 2 rounds
lifecycle: P→D→P→D
phase: in-dispute
volume: $28.8M
bond: $500
condition id: 0x813451b970c8aae23a9b2441fd9be8367e8691a636323ced76f6fd1914c1e0a8

NO lost, 8.4M tokens went to zero

top 5 of 100 holders held 26% (2.2M of 8.4M tokens, from balances)

YES won, 20.4M tokens rebuilt from trades

top 5 of 20 wallets bought 75% (15.4M of 20.4M tokens, from cumulative buys)

they paid $20.4M and redeemed $20.4M (20 wallets read)

Balances show almost none of this. These wallets redeemed and left the book.

who bought the side that won

wallet	bought	held	paid	avg	gain
poorsob 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae	6.8M	5.9M	$5.9M	1.00	$6K
CAR-AyatollahVersion 0x511653479dbf3a4557d8a2359595d429b90dc5b8	4.0M	4.0M	$4.0M	1.00	$4K
033033033 0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b	2.8M	2.8M	$2.8M	1.00	$3K
4bsnDQ7uBXaAViFJ-3seg6qRjugJ2anH2xmF 0x0489b5c2a15eb47bc5cd1e8970bae4819a62722b	1.4M	1.4M	$1.4M	1.00	$1K
RYc9m49W8JC7jKeNk6i86FJDwB8m.U 0xc12f9b314ebe410ac3ba67b44d7de03d18fcd25b	1.3M	1.3M	$1.3M	1.00	$1K
uLppv3ec6CF.7bLkbRy-aNWzJ3JJDURF4Jbi3Eph 0x92f09ce3d30ac7d64b4e728438d0cfec0892b1ea	1.2M	1.2M	$1.2M	1.00	$1K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	935K	935K	$934K	1.00	$1K
NotBakerMcKenzie 0xd99f3bec8e060ada0aef0c4057695dd5bc22fcdc	820K	820K	$819K	1.00	$820
doQysuW7L9-U6xMX8Qgv 0x88edd092d799556111e57ff3b2107e24dd406cfb	754K	754K	$753K	1.00	$754
Dripx 0x82a7183f93447d7a8ff5b4bd08eb0d74de266ed8	450K	450K	$450K	1.00	$450
NIRVANA87 0xebc6257296364265b17cb6e2d605c66d14fdd45f	308K	308K	$307K	1.00	$308
Ordon 0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce	126K	116K	$116K	1.00	$161
ULYSSES18 0x9ef582748baf671ee716075658b870ae747c5d4f	103K	78K	$77K	1.00	$128
iPrediction 0xdb595e005ce61994f85df5cb7f6ab663804f0f16	100K	100K	$100K	1.00	$100
Car 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b	100K	100K	$100K	1.00	$100
pantomime 0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532	55K	55K	$55K	1.00	$55
0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd 0x0a543bb97015206f67e1bc5ead7c2d60baf64a03	52K	0	$-104	-15699.23	$104
dotethguy 0x141ef9052a46984e9d403100dc9c611d48388c87	50K	50K	$50K	1.00	$70
Slowroasted 0xc30c0116e9a5c17f1c03240a0b02a819fe646509	35K	10K	$10K	1.00	$10
Nobo 0xeb7456f7f5429912a6135caae264cc2d368efad6	28K	28K	$28K	1.00	$28

Every token held on the winning side redeems for exactly one dollar, so the gain is arithmetic rather than an estimate. A name is chosen by the account holder and never replaces the address it sits beside.

what this reading does not cover

this build does not read the oracle, so proposer and disputer are unread
holder list truncated at 100, shares are of what was returned
trade index coverage is unknown: trade index head could not be read: 429 Too Many Requests; the winning side below came from the trade log
winning side is from the trade log, all 6208 trades on this market
more winning positions were rebuilt than were requested

check it yourself

recuse market military-action-against-iran-ends-by-april-17-2026
recuse winners military-action-against-iran-ends-by-april-17-2026 --json

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